当前位置:首页 > CFF期刊 > 详细信息

《金融理论与实践》2021年第11期

作者:金融理论与实践
时间:2021年12月23日        字体:           

  中国共产党百年金融风险治理的演变与启示

  王学凯1,石 涛2,3

  (1.中国社会科学院 财经战略研究院,北京 100006;2.河南省社会科学院 经济研究所,河南 郑州 450002;3.中共中央党校(国家行政学院)经济学教研部,北京 100091)

  摘要:纵览百年经济发展,我国经历过不少金融风险,从新民主主义革命时期的多元货币风险,到建设与改革时期的高通胀风险、债务风险、银行风险、资产价格风险,再到对外开放中的汇率波动和资本外逃风险、国际产业转移的产业链供应链重构风险,以及新冠肺炎疫情等重大事件的突发金融风险。中国共产党直面金融风险,在危机中育先机、于变局中开新局,引领中国经济稳步向前。中国共产党百年金融风险治理的启示在于,坚持党的领导是金融风险治理的关键核心,居安思危是金融风险治理的重要前提,深化改革是金融风险治理的有效举措,回归实体经济本源是金融风险治理的目标导向,维护人民利益和增进人民福祉是金融风险治理的出发点和落脚点。

  关键词:中国共产党;金融风险治理;演变与启示

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0001-07      中图分类号:F832      文献标识码:A

  Abstract:  Looking at economic development in the past century, China has experienced a lot of financial risks, including multi currency risk in the period of New Democratic Revolution, high inflation risk, debt risk, bank risk and asset price risk in the period of construction and reform, exchange rate fluctuation, capital flight risk and risk of industrial and supply chain reconstruction caused by international industrial transfer in the process of opening-up, and sudden economic risks caused by major events, such as COVID-19. Facing all kinds of financial risks, the Communist Party of China (CPC) has taken new chances in crisis, found new opportunities in changing situation, which leads China’s economy to move forward steadily. The Enlightenment of CPC’s governance of financial risks lies in that adhering to CPC’s leadership is the key core of governance of financial risks, thinking of danger in times of peace is an important premise of governance of financial risks, deepening reform is an effective measure of governance of financial risks, returning to origin of serving real economy is goal, and safeguarding people’s interests and improving people’s well-being are the starting point and foothold of governance of financial risks.

  Key words: the communist party of china; governance of financial risk; evolution and enlightenment

  股市羊群行为的CSAD指标的探究与应用

  程子悦1,巴曙松2

(中国科学技术大学,安徽 合肥 230026;2.北京大学 汇丰金融研究院,广东 深圳 518055)

  摘要:CSAD方法为常用的检测股市羊群行为的方法,过往文献鲜有对CSAD指标本身的讨论,而仅将其作为实证中的一个变量。通过对CSAD指标的性质和应用进行分析,发现基于美股市场计算出的CSAD指标和标普500指数正相关,和VIX指数负相关。通过VAR模型,发现VIX指数对CSAD指标有引导、预测效果。基于ETF日行情数据计算出的CSAD指标,能比较不同类别投资者的情绪和恐慌程度,指示市场情绪的结构性,也能从情绪角度对市场现象进行解释,如金融类股票在金融危机时期的波动率要远高于在新冠肺炎疫情时期的波动率。使用CSAD指标,还能设计交易策略,例如阈值策略、区间策略和短期波动策略。

  关键词:证券市场;羊群行为;CSAD指标;VIX指数;VAR模型;ETF

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0008-14      中图分类号:F830.91      文献标识码:A

  新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球资本市场波动溢出风险及其连通网络研究

  马晓文,郭文伟,沈明浩

  (广东财经大学 金融学院,广东 广州 510320)

  摘要:结合全球28个股市在2003—2021年的日度数据,采用基于广义方差分解的动态波动溢出指数方法来测度新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球股市波动溢出风险及其连通网络的动态演化特征。在此基础上,基于面板中介效应模型来揭示疫情对股市波动风险的影响机制。研究结果表明:第一,全球重大危机事件(金融危机、疫情危机)冲击均会加剧各国股市的极端波动风险且危机发生国成为波动溢出的主要来源;第二,新冠肺炎疫情冲击加剧全球股市的总体溢出水平和网络连通性水平,使得大部分国家股市面临危机发生国股市的波动溢出风险;第三,新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,我国沪深股市自身波动风险不大,但面临海外国家股市波动溢出风险;第四,从全球来看,总体上存在着“疫情冲击[→]股市波动率(波动溢出风险)[→]股市尾部风险”的影响路径和中介效应。

  关键词:新冠肺炎疫情;证券市场;全球股市;溢出风险;连通网络

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0022-19      中图分类号:F880.9      文献标识码:A

  对我国城乡基础金融服务均等化的探索——基于山东省助农取款服务点的实践

  张立光1,姜 全2

(中国人民银行济南分行,山东 济南 250021;2.中国人民银行烟台市中心支行,山东 烟台 264200)

  摘要:以山东省助农取款服务点为案例,利用问卷调查、访谈和政策研究等方法,在深入扩展我国基础金融服务均等化内涵、界定基础金融服务项目和标准的基础上,探讨了我国城乡基础金融服务均等化工作开展成效及问题障碍等。研究表明,助农取款点服务模式对于推动城乡基础金融服务均等化具有显著成效和积极作用,但存在商业不可持续、无法解决信贷供给不足和资金净流出问题、县城—乡镇—村庄社区三级网络协同不完善、潜在风险较多和供给结构需要进一步优化等问题,并据此提出了对策建议。

  关键词:城乡金融服务;基础金融服务;助农取款点;概念内涵;服务标准;成效与问题

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0041-09      中图分类号:F832.33      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: On the basis of expanding the connotation of equalization of basic financial services and defining the items and standards of basic financial services in China, we take agricultural withdrawal service station of Shandong Province as an example and use the methods of questionnaire, interview and policy research, discusses the achievements, problems and obstacles of the equalization of urban and rural basic financial services in China. The research shows that the service mode of agricultural withdrawal stations has a significant effect and positive role in promoting the equalization of urban and rural basic financial services. However, there are also some problems with this mode, such as the commercial aspect is not sustainable, insufficient credit supply, net outflow of funds from rural areas, imperfect coordination of county-town-village three-level network, more potential risks and the supply structure needs to be further optimized, and so on.

  Key words: urban and rural services; basic financial services; the withdrawal point of agricultural assistance; concept connotation; service standards; achievements and problems

  数字普惠金融能降低影子银行规模吗?

  王 召1, 郑建峡2,刘俊奇3,喻微锋2

  (1.中信银行股份有限公司郑州分行 投资银行部,河南 郑州 450000;2.贵州财经大学 大数据应用与经济学院,贵州 贵阳 550025;3.辽宁大学 经济学院,辽宁 沈阳 110000)

  摘要:通过研究数字普惠金融政策对国内影子银行的影响,基于2011—2019年我国173家商业银行非平衡面板数据,利用系统GMM和DID模型实证分析发现:(1)数字普惠金融政策的推行降低了国内影子银行规模;(2)机制检验表明,数字普惠金融通过加强“风险约束”和缓解“融资约束”途径可以降低国内影子银行规模;(3)宏观货币政策环境的调节机制表明,适度宽松的货币政策环境弱化了数字普惠金融降低影子银行规模的效果;(4)微观银行特征异质性表明,大型、高资产规模、低资本充足率的银行更能降低影子银行的规模;(5)相比东部地区,中西部地区实施数字普惠金融政策对影子银行的约束作用更明显。

  关键词:数字普惠金融;影子银行;风险约束;融资约束;异质性影响

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0050-14      中图分类号:F832.33      文献标识码:A

  美国系统重要性银行TLAC达标经验及启示

  熊启跃1,杨延昭2

(中国银行 研究院,北京 100818;2.中国建设银行,北京 100872)

  摘要:2019年1月1日,针对全球系统重要性银行(G-SIBs)的《全球系统重要性银行总损失吸收能力原则及条款》(TLAC要求)在美国正式开始实施。通过对摩根大通和美国银行两家典型机构的研究发现,美国G-SIBs主要采取了发行合格TLAC债券、降低资产风险密度和压降系统重要性得分等达标措施,而美国监管部门也配合推出“祖父条款”、单点处置框架等政策,促进本国G-SIBs在成本可控条件下实现达标。根据“中国版”TLAC要求,我国G-SIBs将从2025年1月1日起分阶段满足TLAC要求。建议我国G-SIBs应充分利用低利率环境尽早发行TLAC债券,扩大内评法覆盖范围,优化资产配置,降低资产风险密度,并采取措施控制系统重要性得分的上涨。

  关键词:全球系统重要性银行;TLAC要求;风险密度;内部评级法

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0064-10      中图分类号:F832.332      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: On January 1st, 2019, the United States formally implemented the Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirement for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). Based on the research on JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America, this paper finds that U.S G-SIBs manage to meet the requirements mainly by issuing qualified TLAC bonds, reducing assets’ risk density and lowering the G-SIBs scores; US regulatory authorities also introduce “grandfather clause” as well as the single-point resolution framework. In accordance with the newly enacted “Chinese version” TLAC requirements, Chinese major banks will meet the requirements by January 1st, 2025.G-SIBs in China should take full advantage of the low-interest rate environment to issue TLAC bonds, expand the coverage of internal-rating method, reduce the assets’ risk density as well as to lower the G-SIBs scores.

  Key words: G-SIBs; TLAC;  risk density; internal-rating method

  存款保险制度实施中商业银行市场退出机制的国际经验、存在问题及建议

  尹淯淏

  (英国利兹大学,英国 利兹 LS2 9JT)

  摘要:我国存款保险制度的实施为商业银行市场退出奠定了基础,完善的商业银行市场退出机制有利于问题银行风险出清,进而维护银行系统稳定和有序竞争。存款保险制度在处置银行风险中具有稳定预期、防止挤兑、保护利益相关者权益等正向作用,但也存在市场约束弱化、道德风险等问题。目前,绝大多数国家已经实施了存款保险制度,积累了不少可参考借鉴的经验。结合当前我国经济发展和金融市场化实际,需要进一步完善存款保险制度,更加注重审慎监管与存款保险早纠机制的有机结合,完善存款保险制度的市场化风险处置平台作用,健全商业银行风险退出处置法律框架。

  关键词:存款保险;金融稳定;市场退出;风险处置

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0074-10      中图分类号:F832.33      文献标识码:A

  Abstrcts: The implementation of China’s deposit insurance system has laid the conditions for the market exit of commercial banks, and a perfect market exit mechanism of commercial banks is conducive to clearing the risks of problem banks, thus maintaining the stability and orderly competition of the banking system. The deposit system plays a positive role in stabilizing expectations, preventing bank runs and protecting the rights and interests of stakeholders in dealing with bank risks, but it also has some problems such as weakening market constraints and moral hazard. At present, most countries have implemented the deposit insurance system and accumulated a lot of experience for reference. Combined with the current economic development and financial marketization in China, it is necessary to further improve the deposit insurance system, pay more attention to the organic combination of prudent supervision and early correction mechanism of deposit insurance, improve the market-oriented risk disposal platform of the deposit insurance system, and improve the legal framework of risk withdrawal disposal of commercial banks.

  Key words: deposit insurance; financial stability; market exit; risk disposal

  我国贷款人环境法律责任制度的构建与探索

  钱 尘,吴 弘

  (华东政法大学 经济法学院,上海 200000)

  摘要:在国际社会经济可持续发展和我国“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标的要求之下,我国构建贷款人环境法律责任制度具有现实意义。以我国现行法律法规、当前国家政策实践和商业银行内部政策为主要分析对象,全面考察我国构建贷款人环境法律责任制度的现状。研究表明,我国贷款人环境法律责任制度的构建与探索不仅需要吸取域外实践经验,更重要的是需要坚持立足我国国情,由法律法规、国家政策、银行内部政策三个层面共同发力,构建一整套包含行业标准、信息披露、业绩评估、责任承担等内容的贷款人环境法律责任体系。

  关键词:贷款人环境法律责任;绿色金融;环境侵权

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0084-09      中图分类号:F832.4   文献标识码:A

  Abstract: With the sustainable development of international society and economy and the requirement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” in China, it is of great practical significance to construct the system of the lenders environmental liability in China. Based on the the current laws and regulations of our country, the current national policy practice and the internal policy exploration of commercial banks, this paper comprehensively examines the current situation of the construction of lenders environmental liability system in our country. The research shows that the construction and exploration of the lenders environmental liability system in our country not only needs to absorb the foreign practical experience, but also needs to be based on the national conditions of our country. From the three levels of laws and regulations, national policies and internal policies of banks, we should build a set of lenders environmental liability system, which includes industry standards, information disclosure, performance evaluation, liability assumption and so on.

  Key words: lenders environmental liability; green finance; environmental tort

  企业社会责任对上市公司运行效率的影响——基于融资约束中介效应的检验

  朱 琳,马亚明

  (天津财经大学 金融学院,天津 300222)

  摘要:近年来,实体经济经营环境趋紧,我国政府着眼于实体经济,不断推出有利于实体经济发展的政策。选取2010—2020年沪深两市A股上市公司为对象,讨论社会责任履行与上市公司运行效率之间的关系。研究结果表明:积极承担社会责任且社会责任水平高的企业拥有更高的运行效率。采用中介效应模型探究社会责任影响运行效率的传导机制,研究发现融资约束有助于解释企业社会责任对运行效率的正向影响。进一步研究显示,企业社会责任促进运行效率的作用在非国有企业和东部地区表现得更明显。研究结论为政策制定者规范企业社会责任报告披露方式、企业管理者提高公司治理效率提供借鉴意义。

  关键词:上市公司;企业社会责任;全要素生产率;融资约束

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0093-10      中图分类号:F832.51      文献标识码:A

  资本市场助力国有企业混合所有制改革的案例研究

  靳璐畅1,池鸿飞2

(华西证券股份有限公司,四川 成都 610041;2.成都东部新区投资促进局,四川 成都 610000)

  摘要:当前,国有企业混合所有制改革进入加速推进期,如何提高国有资本配置和运行效率成为重点研究课题。从引进战略投资者、资产重组和员工持股等国有企业借助资本市场实施混合所有制改革的路径入手,分别结合上述路径的案例,总结改革效果、提炼改革经验、对比路径特点,针对国有企业利用混改保壳、混改初心不明、非市场化竞聘等问题,建议通过加强日常监管、增加多维度考核及实施“职业经理人”制度来改善。此外,还针对借助资本市场实施国有企业混合所有制改革提出充分授权放权、加大宣传力度、完善管理机制等政策建议。

  关键词:资本市场;国有企业混改;案例研究

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0103-08      中图分类号:F832.51      文献标识码:A

  城乡居民基本养老保险参保缴费影响因素的分析——基于河南省某市的调查

  都闪闪

  (中国社会科学院大学 经济学院,北京 100000)

  摘要:针对城乡居民社会养老保险制度实施中存在的参保居民缴费水平低的问题,基于河南省某地级市近500户居民的入户调研数据,利用Logistic回归模型对城乡居民基本养老保险参保缴费的影响因素进行了实证分析。模型结果表明,影响居民参保缴费的因素不尽相同。其中,个人变量中的户籍、年龄、健康状况、文化程度四个变量对农户缴费档次的选择有不同程度的影响;家庭变量中的月均收入和子女个数对农户缴费档次的选择有显著影响;政策因素中的城乡居民养老保险缴费档次及养老待遇了解度、宣传程度以及知晓途径对农户缴费档次的选择有明显影响。同时从这些影响因素入手,提出了提高农民参保缴费积极性、推动城乡居民养老保险可持续发展的建议。

  关键词:城乡居民养老保险;缴费现状;影响因素

  文章编号:1003-4625(2021)11-0111-08      中图分类号:F842.67      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: Aiming at the problem of low payment level of residents in the implementation of the social endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents,usingthe logistic regression model to analyse empirically the influence factors of urban and rural residential insurance participationbased on the household survey data of nearly 500 households in a prefecture-level city in Henan Province. The results of the model show that the factors that affect residents’ insurance premiums are not the same. Among them, four variables of household registration, age, health status, and educational level in the personal variables have a significant impact on the choice of payment grades for residents; the average monthly income and the number of children in the family variables have a significant impact on the choice of payment grades for residents; policies; Among the factors, the payment grades of urban and rural residents’ pension insurance, the degree of understanding of pension benefits, the degree of publicity, and the ways of knowing have a significant impact on the choice of payment grades for  residents. Finally, we puts forward suggestions to improve farmers’ enthusiasm for participating in insurance and payment, and to promote the sustainable development of the urban and rural housing insurance system.

  Key word: the basic pension insurance system payment for urban and rural residents; payment level; influencing factors

《金融理论与实践》2021年11期之目录(copy)_Print.pdf

《金融理论与实践》2021年11期之内文(copy)_Print.pdf

分享到: 更多
中科汇联承办,easysite内容管理系统,portal门户,舆情监测,搜索引擎,政府门户,信息公开,电子政务