Abstract: Since the financial crisis, low interest rate, low growth and low inflation have become the new normal of the global economy. In this article, we systematically analyze the mechanism and influence of low interest rate policies in various countries. Based the theories of liquidity effect, expectation effect and term structure, the low interest rate could transmitted to the real economy through the interest rate corridor mechanism. Although low interest rate policies play a positive role in boosting market confidence and easing financial market volatility in the short term, its marginal utility is diminishing, the policy transmission is obstructed, and it is not conducive to long-term economic growth. Meanwhile, low interest rates may increase systemic financial risk. In particular, the COVID-19 has an unprecedented impact on the world economy in 2020, which further drive down the policy rate. The low interest rate policy stabilized the financial market but further limited the central bank’s policy space. These analysis has important implications for the improvement of the monetary policy framework in the modern central bank system in China. China should maintain a normal monetary policy. This is of great significance to strength the endogenous driving force of China’s development, improve the potential of the consumer market, promote the high-level opening up of finance, accelerate the formation of a new development pattern of double circulation and further promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.
Abstract: This paper explores the development path of green finance from the externality of green finance and the risk of regional economy transformation in Shandong Province. The research shows that the key to developing green finance is the pricing of environmental resources risk by financial institutions. This requires policy and market forces to promote the promotion of social and environmental values, and to make financial institutions have the power to incorporate social and environmental values into decision-making based on the consideration of transformation risk. Therefore, we should optimize the external institutional environment of green financial development with scientific policies, and make the transition risk explicit through policy promotion, so as to improve the cognition of social and environmental value of financial institutions and further activate the endogenous power of financial institutions to develop green financial business. In this regard, the policy suggestions are put forward from four aspects: accelerating the formulation of green economic development strategy, improving the level of “green” of enterprises, promoting the development of green finance at different levels and promoting the quantitative research of environmental risks.
Key words: green finance; externality; transformation risk
Abstract: Since the “8[∙]11 exchange rate reform” in 2015, the RMB exchange rate flexibility has increased significantly, from unilateral appreciation to two-way volatility. Exchange rate expectations have also changed significantly. Based on the data of 2009.01-2020.06, this paper uses the Adaptive expectations theory and GARCH model to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate expectation formation and fluctuation before and after the “8[∙]11 exchange rate reform”. The study found that Renminbi exchange rate expectations fit the Adaptive expectations. After the “8·11 exchange rate reform”, the speed of adjustment of exchange rate expectation has been quickened, the memory of exchange rate expectation fluctuation has been strengthened, and the leverage effect of exchange rate expectation fluctuation has changed. At the same time, foreign exchange market participants from the risk-preference type to risk-averse type. The change of the supply-demand relationship in the foreign exchange market under the changing economic and trade development environment at home and abroad is the main inducement of the structural change of the expected fluctuation of the exchange rate. Meanwhile the “8[∙]11 exchange rate reform” makes the exchange rate expectation reflect the change of supply and demand in foreign exchange market more directly, and it is an important catalyst for the structural change of exchange rate expectation. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the mechanism of exchange rate marketization, strengthen the guidance of rational expectations, further improve the foreign exchange market participants, and enrich the exchange rate risk management tools.
Abstract: As an important innovation of traditional pig insurance, pig futures is a more effective risk management tool to ensure the development of pig industry, which plays an important role in the steady development of pig industry. By combing the literature on the influencing factors of farmers’ participation in pig insurance, combined with the field survey results in Jiangxi Province, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of farmers’ willingness to participate in pig futures. Using ISM model, this paper studies the influencing factors and their correlation from five dimensions, such as individual characteristics and family characteristics, clarifies the hierarchical structure. The results show that age, the degree of cognition and understanding of pig futures and gender are the direct surface factors. Nine factors including pig breeding cost, breeding specialization and breeding scale are the indirect factors in the middle level. Price fluctuation in the pig market, education level, strength and attitude of government support are the underlying root factors. Therefore, it is suggested that pig farmers should take the initiative to improve their professional and technical level, relevant companies engaged in futures trading should improve the quality of salesmen, and the government should give full play to the leading role to improve farmers’ willingness to participate.
Key words: forward market; ISM model; pig futures; willingness to participate; influencing factors