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《金融理论与实践》2019年第6期

作者:金融理论与实践
时间:2019年07月17日        字体:           点击量:

  金砖国家股指期货市场的相关结构及谱风险度量——基于Vine-Copula模型的实证研究

  谢 赤1,2,李洪琼1

  (1.湖南大学 工商管理学院,湖南 长沙 410082;2.湖南大学 金融与投资管理研究中心,湖南 长沙 410082)

  摘要:分析跨国间多个市场间的相关结构对有效实施金融监管和风险管控具有重要意义。选取金砖国家股指期货数据为样本,运用Vine-Copula模型研究金砖国家股指期货市场之间的相关结构,综合考虑它们之间的整体相关性,并在刻画相关结构的基础上,度量五国期货和以它们所组成的资产组合的VaR与谱风险。实证研究表明,C-Vine、D-Vine和R-Vine在刻画五国市场相关结构的效果上相差不大,在C-Vine结构下,发现南非市场处于根节点位置,充分说明南非市场在金砖市场中的重要性。另外,就单个资产来说,南非市场的风险较大,而印度市场的风险较小。谱风险考虑了所有的极端损失,相比于VaR而言,对极端风险的刻画更加充分。

  关键词:金砖国家;股指期货;谱风险;相关性;Vine-Copula模型

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0001-08      中图分类号:F830.9      文献标识码:A

  退市及其投资者权益保护研究——以欣泰电气为例

  陈贺鸿

  (广州番禺职业技术学院,广东 广州 511483)

  摘要:随着我国证券市场的建立与完善,中小投资者已成为资本市场流通资金的主要来源,但是,投资者权益受到侵害的情况时有发生。以首例因IPO欺诈被强制退市的欣泰电气案例为研究对象,从其IPO欺诈被强制退市入手,从投资者权益保护层面对退市及其投资者权益保护现状动因分析,通过对个案的分析发现退市中投资者权益保护存在的共性问题,为完善证券市场的监管职能、降低上市公司违法性退市风险及提高投资者权益保护提供一定的参考和借鉴作用。

  关键词:IPO欺诈;强制退市;退市赔付;投资者权益保护

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0009-09      中图分类号:F830.91      文献标识码:A

  从国际经贸协定看中国金融服务开放

  尹向明

  (中国人民银行金融研究所,北京 100033)

  摘要:通过分析我国在经贸协定中的金融服务开放承诺落实情况及各方评价,对比美国、欧盟、日本、东盟等经济体签署的经贸协定相关条款,发现我国在完善金融服务开放规则框架方面还有较大空间。国际社会对我国履行金融开放承诺评价存在差别,争议焦点是外资金融机构在华经营是否实质性受到限制。在推动金融开放过程中,应为外资金融机构在华开展业务提供更多便利,同时也要做好应对金融服务领域国际经贸摩擦的准备。

  关键词:世界贸易组织;金融服务;对外开放;金融安全

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0018-08      中图分类号:F832.1      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: This study analyzes the contents and commitments on financial services of international economic and trade agreements that China signed, and compares them with the agreements signed by other countries such as the US, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN economies. We find that China could continue to improve the rule of opening financial services. The different opinions of international parties about China’s fulfilling the commitment to open financial market focus on whether the foreign financial institutions operating in China is limited in essence. China should break down the policy barriers for foreign financial institutions, and  fully prepare for the disputes in financial openness.

  Key words: international economic and trade agreement; financial service; opening up;financial security

  多层次资本市场改革及其对商业银行的影响

  曾 珠

  (成都大学 商学院,四川 成都 610106)

  摘要:在美国贸易战和A股市场剧烈下行的背景下,国家从顶层设计上正一步步完善多层次资本市场,以满足企业的融资需求。以主板、二板、新三板、区域性股权市场为主体的“正金字塔形”资本市场初步形成。IPO审核趋严、效率提高、监管趋严、国际化、投资者保护升级以及上市制度和退市制度的改革成为资本市场发展的新动向,这导致商业银行的传统业务受到巨大冲击。直接层面来看,企业融资渠道拓宽,商业银行投行化转型成为一种必需;深刻层次来说,商业银行必须拓展新的利润增长点,如提供交易撮合、咨询服务、资产管理业务等中间业务收入。商业银行亟须创新产品、技术、服务和商业模式,大力发展资产证券化,积极对接资本市场,提升国际竞争力。

  关键词:多层次资本市场;商业银行;影响

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0026-06      中图分类号:F832.5      文献标识码:A

  我国支付与市场基础设施风险管理现状、挑战与政策建议

  卜又春

  (中国人民银行济南分行,山东 济南 250001)

  摘要:支付与市场基础设施是一国经济金融体系不可或缺的重要组成部分,其安全高效运行对于畅通货币政策传导机制、加速社会资金周转、维护金融稳定具有重大意义。近年来,我国支付与市场基础设施体系不断完善,参与主体数量及业务规模持续增长,在为经济金融创新发展提供高效清算、结算服务的同时,其面临的多层嵌套风险、跨市场风险传染等问题也愈加凸显。研究深入分析了我国支付与市场基础设施风险管理现状与面临的难点,提出了建立全面风险管理框架的政策建议,以期为我国支付与市场基础设施风险管理政策制定与实施提供参考借鉴。

  关键词:支付与市场基础设施;风险;管理

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0032-04      中图分类号:F832.24      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: Payment and market infrastructure is an indispensable and important part of a country’s economic and financial system. Its safe and efficient operation is important to smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism, accelerate social capital turnover and maintain financial stability. In recent years, China’s payment and market infrastructure system has been continuously improved, and the number of participants and business scale have been growing continuously. While providing efficient liquidation and settlement services for the innovative development of economy and finance, problems such as multi-layer risk nesting and cross-market risk contagion have become increasingly prominent. This paper deeply analyzes the current situation and difficulties of Payment and market infrastructure risk management in China, and puts forward policy Suggestions for establishing a comprehensive risk management framework, so as to provide reference for the formulation and implementation of Payment and market infrastructure risk management policies in China.

  Key words: payment and market infrastructure; risk; management

  “互联网+过桥金融”服务中小微企业融资的标准化及机制阐释

  ——场景金融的视角

  肖 龙1,李瑞雪2

  (1.福建商学院,福建 福州 350012;2.浙江大学,浙江 杭州 310000)

  摘要:在全球新型工业化浪潮与我国“一带一路”建设发展的大背景下,分析我国“互联网+过桥金融”服务中小微企业融资的标准化现实需求,从场景金融的视角阐述我国“互联网+过桥金融”服务中小微企业融资的标准化及机制内容,并提出要求各主体关系得到合理处理的“自下而上”的标准化路径与原则。具体的,“自下而上”的标准化路径要求由主要从业者制定严格、具体、高效的行业标准,标准经政府等部门审核后由行业协会等承上启下的组织机构承担发布,标准实施则应发挥行业龙头企业的示范作用,进而在全行业推广。

  关键词:互联网+过桥金融;中小微企业;标准化机制;场景金融

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0036-07      中图分类号:F832.39      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: In the background of the new global industrialization tide and China’s “The Belt and Road”development strategy, analysis the realistic demand of China’s “Internet plus bridge finance” services for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, elaborate the standardization and mechanism of “Internet plus bridge finance” services for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises from the perspective of scene finance, and put forward a “bottom-up” standardization path and principles which based on the reasonable subject relationship. Specifically, the “bottom-up” standardization path required the main industry practitioners formulate strict, specific and efficient industry standards, and industry association release the standards after government sector examined the standards. Then, it should play the exemplary role of leading enterprises to promote the industry standards.

  Key words: internet plus bridge finance; small and medium-sized enterprises; standardization mechanism; scene financial

  对地方政府及平台公司投融资行为变化的调查与思考

  郑桂华,谢丹妮,刘信兵,巫 姣

  (中国人民银行株洲市中心支行,湖南 株洲 412000)

  摘要:近年来,为规范地方政府及平台公司融资行为,国务院、国家发改委、财政部等下发多文,出台多策,逐步规范了地方政府及平台公司融资行为,基本抑制了融资规模非理性增长。为进一步了解政策的实施效果,以湖南省株洲市为例开展调查,就政策变化对地方政府及平台公司投资、融资行为的影响进行探讨,以期对地方政府债务风险防范和化解有所助益。

  关键词:地方政府债务;投融资行为;政策影响

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0043-06      中图分类号:F832.41      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: In recent years, in order to standardize the financing behavior of local governments and platform companies, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other commissionshave issued a number of articles and policies to gradually standardize the financing behavior of local governments and platform companies. The irrational growth of financing scale was suppressed. In order to further understand the implementation effect of the policy, this paper takes Zhuzhou City as an example to investigate the impact of policy changes on local government and platform companies’ investment and financing behavior, in order to promote the prevention and resolution of local government debt risks.

  Key words: local government debt; investment and financing behavior; policy implications

  数字普惠金融的风险与监管

  卫晓锋

  (中国人民银行郑州中心支行,河南 郑州 450018)

  摘要:数字技术以其成本低、覆盖广等优势推动我国普惠金融迅速发展。数字普惠金融有效缓解了传统普惠金融存在的信用采集难、成本高等困难,降低了普惠金融推广中的部分风险。与此同时,数字技术也为普惠金融带来了新的风险,给普惠金融监管带来困难。目前国内外文献主要集中在数字普惠金融发展现状、存在问题和对策研究,针对数字技术下产生的风险和监管研究有待加强,实践中数字普惠金融监管框架仍需进一步完善。从数字普惠金融的基本内涵出发,系统梳理了其发展现状、存在问题和目前监管状况,并从数字技术和普惠金融结合的角度详细分析了存在的各种风险。针对这些风险,基于数字普惠金融的历史发展,论证了监管的必要性,探索构建了相应的监管框架,提出了具体的监管措施。

  关键词:数字普惠金融;风险;监管

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0049-06      中图分类号:F832.39      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: The low-cost and widespread digital technology is boosting the rapid development of financial inclusion in China. Digital financial inclusion has solved some of the old problems of financial inclusion, such as difficulties in credit investigation and collection, the high costs in promotion and lowered some amount of financial risks. However, digital technology brings new risks to financial inclusion, making regulation harder than before. The current discussion of the risk and regulation of digital financial inclusion is inadequate and unsystematic as most of the research stay merely at introducing the history and problems of its developmenmt. This paper starts from the defination of digital financial inclusion, making a thorough analysis on it’s risks as the merging of digital technology and financial inclusion. Based on the risk analysis, this paper proposes a possible regulation framwork and some measures.

  Key words: digital financial inclusion; risk; regulation

  金融支持深度贫困地区发展问题研究——基于广西20个深贫县视角

  中国人民银行河池市中心支行课题组

  (中国人民银行河池市中心支行,广西 河池 547000)

  摘要:通过深入分析广西扶贫工作成效、深度贫困地区现状和金融支持深度贫困地区发展面临的问题,并利用面板数据模型进行实证分析,得出结论认为整体上人均财政支出、个人精准扶贫贷款对农村人均纯收入提高有显著影响;从金融供给路径、产业支撑路径和环境支持路径提出解决思路;根据路径设想和存在问题,从产业发展、优惠政策支持、金融机构作为、资金投入与风险控制、政府部门服务等方面提出具体建议。

  关键词:金融扶贫;深度贫困县;金融供给;乡村振兴;农村金融

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0055-08      中图分类号:F832.43      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: This article provides an in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of poverty alleviation in Guangxi,the current situation of Deep-Poverty regions and the problems of financial support for the development of Deep-Poverty regions. We conduct an empirical panel-data analysis and conclude that the per capita fiscal expenditure and personal precision poverty alleviation loans have significant influence on The per capita net income of rural households. Then we propose solutionsfrom the financial supply path, the industrial support path and the environmental support path; according to the path assumptions and existing problems, from industrial development, preferential policy support, Conduct of financial institutions, capital investment and risk control, and Government Services offer specific suggestions.

  Key words: financialpoverty alleviation; deep-povertycounties; financial supply; rural revitaliation; rural finance

  商业银行经营效率的“垂足距离”测算——基于改进熵权的两阶段TOPSIS-DEA模型分析法

  王 钢1,2,石 奇2

  (1.浙江工业职业技术学院,浙江 绍兴 312000;2.南京财经大学,江苏 南京 210023)

  摘要:通过构建基于改进熵权的两阶段TOPSIS-DEA模型对“垂足距离”进行测算,获得了更为有效的银行经营效率测算值。实证结果显示:股份制商业银行在资金运用效率方面领先于国有控股银行及城商行,资金运用效率的平均“垂足距离”值为0.0158;国有控股银行在资金组织效率上处于领先地位,资金组织效率的平均“垂足距离”值为0.0143;城商行受体量和资源的约束,其整体经营效率排名靠后,资金组织效率、运用效率和整体效率三个指标的“垂足距离”值分别为0.0228、0.0219和0.0214。最后结合实证分析结果,针对商业银行在资金组织及运用效率两阶段中存在的问题提出了相应的对策。

  关键词:商业银行;经营效率;熵权;垂足距离;TOPSIS-DEA

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0063-08      中图分类号:F832.33      文献标识码:A

  中新银行业合作历史演进、存在问题与前景展望

  申 韬1,徐静怡2

  (1.广西大学 商学院,广西 南宁 530004;2.广西大学 国际学院,广西 南宁 530004)

  摘要:中国与新加坡银行业拥有长期且稳定的合作关系,随着两国银行业合作层次的提升,人民币国际化业务也在不断推进。由于中新两国经济发展水平和银行业管理体制存在差异,在银行业合作过程中会出现双向需求不匹配、互设分行存在障碍等问题。因此在“一带一路”倡议下,基于双方合作进程中存在的问题,中新两国银行业管理层应充分利用金融科技,创新传统经营模式,扩大业务领域,开展新型合作关系,深化中新银行业合作,进而推动中新经济领域合作进程。

  关键词:商业银行;外资银行;新加坡金融管理局;金融体制;银保合作;金融科技;人民币国际化

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0071-08      中图分类号:F832.6      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: The banking industry of China and Singapore has a long-term and stable cooperative relationship. With the promotion of the banking cooperation between the two countries, the internationalization of RMB business is also advancing. Due to the differences in economic development level and banking management system between China and Singapore, two-way demand mismatch and barriers to the establishment of branches in each other may occur in the process of banking cooperation.Therefore, under the “One Belt And One Road” initiative, based on the existing problems in the process of bilateral cooperation, the banking management of China and Singapore should make full use of fintech, innovate the traditional business model, expand business areas, carry out a new type of cooperative relationship, deepen China-Singapore banking cooperation, and promote the process of China-Singapore economic cooperation.

  Key words: commercial banks; foreign banks; monetary authority of singapore; financial system; bank-insurance cooperation; fintech; RMB internationalization

  客户集中度对股价崩盘风险的影响及内在机理研究

  张 超,彭浩东

  (南京师范大学 商学院,江苏 南京 210046)

  摘要:基于2008—2017年所有A股上市公司数据,检验了客户集中度和股价崩盘风险的关系,并研究其内在机理。以上市公司披露的前五大客户数据作为客户集中度的指标。研究发现:股价崩盘风险随着客户集中度的变化呈现倒U形曲线特征,同时这一现象在民营企业中更为显著。进一步的研究表明:客户集中度位于中间区域时,公司的综合风险加强。同时,位于中间区域的客户集中度对于经营业绩的改善在当期远不如股价的增长幅度,从而为下一期的股价崩盘积累了泡沫。通过从全新的角度分析股价崩盘的影响因素,为上市公司如何预防和降低股价崩盘风险提供了一个新的视角。

  关键词:证券市场;客户集中度;股价崩盘风险;综合风险;股价泡沫

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0079-08      中图分类号:F832.5      文献标识码:A

  长期护理保险制度与区域经济发展协调度评价与优化

  陈 凯,赵 娜

  (东北大学 工商管理学院,辽宁 沈阳 110169)

  摘要:基于2017年数据测算了12个试点地区长期护理保险制度与区域经济发展的协调关系。研究表明:上海、宁波等 7个试点地区二者发展相协调;青岛、南通等5 个试点地区存在失调现象。从二者发展状况对比看,上饶、荆门等6个地区为长期护理保险制度发展滞后型;上海、青岛等6个地区为区域经济发展滞后型。人均缴费水平和覆盖率2个指标对长期护理保险制度发展影响最显著;人均可支配收入和人均消费支出对区域经济发展影响最显著。

  关键词:保险研究;长期护理保险制度;区域经济发展;耦合协调度;灰色关联

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0087-07      中图分类号:F840.612      文献标识码:A

  延迟退休政策下养老保险的收入再分配效应研究

  周海珍,曹航玮

  (浙江财经大学 金融学院,浙江 杭州 310018)

  摘要:一般认为统筹养老保险制度存在明显的收入再分配,并有缩小收入差距的作用。那么,在实施延迟退休之后,随着缴费期的延长,对基本养老保险收入再分配效应会有怎么样的影响呢?基于此,以《国家统计年鉴》的数据为基础,运用数值模拟首先测算当前退休年龄下养老保险的收入再分配效应,在此基础上,进一步分析并比较不同的退休年龄以及预期寿命对延迟退休政策下养老保险收入再分配效应的影响。结果显示:(1)在居民预期寿命达到一定年龄时,推迟退休年龄能优化再分配收入格局,且减轻养老保险基金给付压力;(2)由于延迟退休会缩短养老金的领取年数,如果预期寿命没有达到一定年龄,此时若一味过度推迟退休年龄会使养老保险成为居民的“负担”。

  关键词:基本养老保险;收入再分配;延迟退休;预期寿命

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0094-07      中图分类号:F840.612      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: It is generally believed that there is a clear income redistribution effect on pooling pension insurance system, and it has the effect of narrowing the income gap. Then, after the implementation of postponing the retirement age, with the extension of the payment period, how to change the effect of the redistribution of basic pension insurance? Based on the data of the National Statistical Yearbook, this paper first calculates the income redistribution effect of pension insurance under the current retirement age by numerical simulation. Then, Considering and comparing the effects of income redistribution of pension insurance under different retirement ages and life expectancy under the delayed retirement scheme. the results show as follows: firstly, postponing retirement age can optimize the pattern of income redistribution and reduce the payment pressure of pension fund if the expected life reaches a certain age. Secondly, the number of pension years will be shortened due to the delay in retirement, the pension insurance will be a “burden” for the residents if the retirement age postponed excessively while the expected life did not reach a certain age.

  Key words: basic retirement insurance; redistribution of income; retirement age delaying; expected life

  商业银行参与租赁住房融资的模式、风险与缓释措施

  张 伟

  (上海浦东发展银行,上海 200120)

  摘要:改革开放后,我国住房供应体系经历了从“全民租房”到“住房分配”、“公房出售”与“提租增资”的混合与轮动,再到“只售不租”,最后到“租购并举”四个历史阶段。发展租赁住房事业需要银行资金的支持。但是,由于受房价泡沫的扰动,我国重点城市的租售比普遍偏低,这导致银行为租赁住房融资的风险增加。通常情况下,银行为租赁住房融资主要有四种模式:租赁住房建设融资,租赁住房购买融资,租赁住房改造、存量债务置换与日常经营维护融资,租赁住房转租融资。上述不同模式的风险特点不同,其风险缓释措施也相应各异。其中,租赁住房转租经营的盈利模式不成熟,系目前一段时间坊间非议与融资风险滥觞之源。

  关键词:商业银行;住房信贷;租赁住房;租购并举;融资模式;风险控制

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0101-08      中图分类号:F832.45      文献标识码:A

  国际货币体系多元化下的中亚国家“去美元化”研究

  王 炜1,2,秦放鸣1,刘 琴3

  (1.新疆大学 经济与管理学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046;2.中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002;3.新疆大学 国际文化交流学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046)

  摘要:2008年全球金融危机以来,国际货币体系结构正经历深层次转变,“美元化”与“去美元化”博弈正酣。中亚国家作为全球美元化程度最高的地区之一,近年来积极推行“去美元化”战略,背后具有其特定的历史根源和政策逻辑。研究回顾了“美元化”和“去美元化”概念的提出、发展及相关研究成果,通过面板数据固定效应模型分析中亚国家“美元化”高企的主要驱动因素,在此基础上对中亚国家近年来“去美元化”成效加以分析和评估,进而总结出对该地区区域结算货币体系构建、人民币国际化等命题的一些启示。

  关键词:国际金融;美元化;去美元化;国际货币体系多元化;中亚国家

  文章编号:1003-4625(2019)06-0109-10      中图分类号:F832.6      文献标识码:A

  Abstract: Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the international monetary system structure has undergone a deep-seated transformation, and the game between “dollarization” and “de-dollarization” has been faltering. As one of the regions with the highest level of dollarization in the world, Central Asian countries have actively implemented the “de-dollarizing” strategy in recent years, with its specific historical roots and policy logic behind. The paper reviews the concept of “dollarization” and “de-dollarization” with its initiation, development and related studies scrutinized.  The main causes of the “dollarization” in Central Asian countries are analyzed through the panel data fixed-effects model, based on which the Central Asian countries’ “de-dollarization” measures have been analyzed and evaluated. Then a set of inspirations related to the reconstruction of the settlement currency system in Central Asia and the Renminbi Internationalization have been proposed in the paper.

  Key words: international finance; dollarization; de-dollarization; diversification of international monetary system; central Asian countries

《金融理论与实践》2019年6期之目录(copy)_Print.pdf

《金融理论与实践》2019年6期之内文(copy)_Print.pdf

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